SoE 2006 > Human settlement > 2.1 Population and settlement patterns

2.1 Population and settlement patterns

The NSW Government is implementing long term land-use planning strategies that will assist in managing the impacts of urban development on natural resources and the environment across the State.

Population growth continues to be strongest in Sydney and the coastal areas, though the rate of growth has slowed slightly. In rural areas, population is gravitating to the major regional centres.

The Government has put in place the Metropolitan Strategy: City of Cities – A Plan for Sydney's Future in consultation with the relevant communities. The Government is finalising similar strategies for NSW's other coastal regions.

These long-term, 25-year strategies will provide much greater certainty about where future urban development will occur. The strategies are designed to support continued economic growth while balancing social and environmental impacts.

NSW indicators

Introduction

Demands for infrastructure, including housing, energy, water, transport and waste disposal, are increasing as the population grows. Supplying this infrastructure results in changes to land uses and other impacts on the environment. Sound planning can minimise and manage these impacts.

Since 2000–01, Sydney's inner- and middle-ring suburbs have accounted for more than half the new dwellings in the city. However, despite this seemingly successful urban consolidation, the inherited structure of the city cannot be changed rapidly. Historically, a preference for low-density urban housing has produced decentralised settlement patterns, with an expanding suburban population removed from employment and commercial centres. This has also extended the 'peri-urban interface', an unstable zone between new urban and traditionally rural areas, such as Camden and Pitt Town.

In the coastal regions, population growth continues to exert strong pressure on the environment, with such impacts as a loss of ecosystems, and sedimentation and nutrient pollution in coastal lakes and estuaries. This is in addition to the growing impacts of climate change, such as rising sea levels, faced by these areas (see Atmosphere 3.1).

Current status and trends

Population distribution and change

The preliminary estimated resident population of NSW at September 2005 was 6.788 million, an increase of 0.8% since September 2004. This is a third of the overall Australian population of 20.388 million (ABS 2005a). Natural population increase (births exceeding deaths) has remained relatively stable. However, the net rate of population increase in NSW slowed from a 17-year peak of nearly 90,000 in 2000–01 to 53,000 in 2004–05. This fall was partly attributable that year to a net loss in population of 26,000 from interstate movements when emigration exceeded immigration. Although NSW consistently receives the biggest proportion of overseas immigrants, the State's share of the national total has fallen from 43% in 2000–01 to about 33%. Almost 90% of new arrivals to NSW continue to settle in Sydney (TPDC 2005a).

Table 2.1 outlines NSW population trends within four Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) regions. The greater metropolitan region (GMR₁) encompasses only 2.2% of the total NSW landmass but has 74% of its population. Sydney is home to around 4.3 million people and forecasts suggest this will grow to 5.3 million people by 2031 and 6 million by mid-century. Since 2001, Sydney has been growing by more than 31,000 people a year – an annual growth rate of 0.8% (DoP 2005a; ABS 2006).

In the inland regions, the overall population is growing very slightly (less than 0.5% per year), although some of the larger towns are experiencing higher growth rates as people gravitate to them from smaller population centres.

Table 2.1: Average annual population increase and growth rates in NSW regions, 1981–2005

Source: ABS 2006

Notes: ^(a) GMR₁ comprises all statistical local areas (SLAs)/local government areas (LGAs) in the Sydney Statistical Division (SD), Newcastle Statistical Subdivision (SSD), Wollongong SSD and Wingecarribee SLA
^(b) Comprises all SLAs/LGAs in the Richmond–Tweed SD, Mid-North Coast SD and the following LGAs: Great Lakes, Shoalhaven, Eurobodalla and Bega Valley
^(c) Comprises all SLAs/LGAs not included in either the GMR₁ or coastal regions outside the GMR₁

Short-term tourism places additional pressure on natural and built environments. In the year ended September 2005, Australia received 5.04 million international visitors, 55.3% of whom came to NSW. Sydney that year received 30.9% of the 7.8 million domestic visitors to NSW. A projected annual growth of 5.6% in NSW tourism will result in 9 million visitors annually by 2014 (Tourism NSW 2005).

Demographic change and household and family structure

Population growth in NSW has been accompanied by changes in the age structure, the average number of people per household, and the composition of households. Shifts in demographics drive changes in land use and demand for the various housing types which best accommodate different household structures, age groups and lifestyles. The NSW population has continued to age because of improved life expectancy and the demographic 'bulge' of the 'baby boomer' generation and this is having a significant impact on household forms.

In 2006, nearly 50% of Sydney households were estimated to comprise only one or two people, with about half of these being single-person households (Figure 2.1) (ABS 2004a; ABS 2004b). This trend towards fewer people per dwelling is generating demand for new housing at a faster rate than population growth. By 2031, there is likely to be an additional 300,000 single-person households in Sydney, representing 30% of all households (DoP 2005a). Couples with children are projected by 2031 to remain the largest group at 32%, but by only a small margin (DoP 2005a).

Figure 2.1: Sydney's changing household structures – data for 2001 and five-year projections to 2026

Source: Derived from ABS 2004a and ABS 2004b

Note: The projections are based on the ABS series II assumption that trends in living arrangements over the last 15 years continue for five years and then progressively lessen.

The 2001 census indicated that approximately 30% of all Aboriginal Australians live in NSW, with the largest community in Sydney. In north-western and far western NSW, Aboriginal people make up a higher proportion of the population and this share is increasing due to a higher than average natural population growth rate, along with migration by non-Aboriginal people away from these regional and rural areas. The largest increase, however, is expected to occur on the North Coast and this will result in greater demand for Aboriginal-specific services in these areas. Compared with the NSW population as a whole, Indigenous Australians tend to have more diverse household structures and live in larger households (Memmott & Moran 2001).

Residential density patterns

Between 2001 and 2005, Sydney accounted for 84% of the population growth within the GMR₁ (ABS 2006). Patterns of residential growth and development have changed over the last decade with the city's inner- and middle-ring suburbs now accommodating a larger share of the housing growth (Map 2.1). In 2000–01, these areas accounted for over 50% of the net increase in dwelling stock. Recent data indicates that this trend has accelerated during the current SoE reporting period (DoP 2005a). The increased delivery of predominantly multi-unit dwellings to the inner- and middle-ring suburbs is supplying housing choice in accessible locations.

Over the past five years, 75% of new dwellings have been built in established areas of Sydney, with the rest located in new release areas (DoP 2005a). Despite this recent urban consolidation, the majority of Sydneysiders continue to live in low-density outer suburbs.

Map 2.1: Sydney dwelling densities

Source: DoP data 2005

Note: Map data is estimated from the latest estimated resident population (by statistical local area) based on the 2001 census.

Response to the issue

The State Government actively manages residential densities and changes in land use. It works within the legislative framework set by the Environmental Planning and Assessment Act 1979 for planning and land-use management in NSW. The Government uses legislative instruments, such as state environmental planning policies and regional environmental plans, to deliver desired planning and development outcomes. In 2004, the Minister for Planning announced a major overhaul of the planning system.

Metropolitan and regional strategies

An important aim of the planning reforms was to facilitate the implementation of Government metropolitan and regional strategies. Metropolitan Strategy: City of cities – A Plan for Sydney's Future (DoP 2005a) provides the planning framework for population growth in Sydney to 2030. Key aims of the strategy are to contain the city's urban footprint, enhance its liveability, protect the environment, strengthen economic competitiveness, ensure fairness and improve governance. Economic, social and environmental sustainability are the guiding principles for the plan's seven strategy areas: economy and employment; centres and corridors; housing; transport; environment and resources; parks and public places; and implementation and governance.

A target to build 30–40% of new dwellings in greenfield sites and the remainder in existing urban areas will be incorporated into subregional strategies. At the same time, the establishment of the Growth Centres Commission (GCC) and implementation of sustainability criteria applied to land releases outside the GCC area aim to stabilise the peri-urban zone and protect resource lands in the Sydney Basin. The recently announced State Infrastructure Strategy will also link the provision of infrastructure with the direction provided by the Metropolitan Strategy.

In 2005, the Government began preparing regional strategies to guide councils outside the metropolitan area in their strategic planning and preparation of new local environmental plans (LEPs). With 25-year time frames, these regional strategies set directions for local government planners in a number of areas, including the scale and location of housing, employment growth, the integration of transport and land use, environment protection and the sustainable management of natural resources.

Draft regional strategies are being prepared for the Far North Coast, Lower Hunter, Illawarra, South Coast, Mid North Coast and Central Coast, as well as the region between Sydney and Canberra.

As an example, the Draft Lower Hunter Regional Strategy (2006–2031) is a broadscale land-use planning framework to accommodate a predicted 25% increase in population in the region over the next 25 years. The strategy will promote Newcastle as the key regional city and provide for a forecast housing demand of as many as 95,000 new dwellings by 2031. Up to 50% of these are earmarked for existing residential areas with the aim of constraining the spread of urban development (DoP 2005b).

Development approval

The planning reforms also include a number of changes to streamline development approval processes. The Government's policy has been to reduce its involvement in the details of local planning and development and generally make local councils responsible for development approvals. In line with this approach, over 1100 concurrences and referrals formerly required in LEPs have been removed and Ministerial Section 117 directions have also been revised. Approximately 60% fewer urban developments now require permits under the Rivers and Foreshores Improvement Act 1948.

By 2011, all LEPs will need to be based on a standard template that is consistent with subregional and Metropolitan Strategy targets. The template LEP reduces the number of land-use zones from 3100 to around 25, and the number of definitions from 1700 to about 255 (DIPNR 2005; DoP 2005a).

Part 3A of the Environmental Planning and Assessment Amendment (Infrastructure and Other Planning Reform) Act 2005 provides for integrated assessment of major projects and critical infrastructure projects, and removes the requirement for separate approvals.

BASIX

The Building Sustainability Index (BASIX) was introduced in 2004 as a NSW planning requirement that aims to reduce the environmental impacts of new dwellings. From October 2006, it also applies to all additions and alterations costing over $100,000.

Operating as a web-based tool, BASIX is used to assess the design features of new houses, units and renovations against specific targets for energy and water reduction. The result is a list of commitments, with the BASIX certificate showing how the design will meet the BASIX targets (see Human Settlement 2.2 and Human Settlement 2.3). BASIX targets vary across NSW according to climate, with the highest targets near the coast.

Future directions

Over the next 25 years, Sydney's population is projected to grow by more than one million as individuals continue to settle in areas where economic, employment, housing and educational opportunities are attractive. This will be partially offset by interstate and intrastate migration as 'sea-changers' and 'tree-changers' swap urban lifestyles for coastal or rural retreats. These trends will bring pressure for further coastal sprawl in conjunction with expanding coastal tourism and related service industries. Both urban and coastal long-term growth trends will require vigilance to limit the depletion of natural resources, such as biodiversity, native vegetation and riparian zones, green and open spaces, prime agricultural soils, and forests, as well as the generation of waste. Improving land-use management and planning policies has the potential to reduce the environmental impacts of the expansion of urban and coastal settlement to more sustainable levels.

The Metropolitan Strategy and the regional strategies aim to constrain the urban footprint. The overhaul of planning laws should simplify local government processes but it is too early to identify the environmental impacts of streamlined application assessments, the reduced need for permits, and new planning provisions for major and critical infrastructure projects.

Much will depend on the essential infrastructure improvements needed to service sustainable urban development and continued efforts to better integrate future transport plans with urban consolidation strategies. Sustainability programs should guide the planning, land-use and management decisions made by industries, government agencies and individuals. These and related sustainability issues are considered further in this chapter.